|Originally posted by Dykes_on_Jay |
Incumbents almost never lose, and unless record numbers go out to the polls (which was lol about last time...at least vote ffs.) Trump will take it easily. The wildcard is when progressives start cannibalizing and voting 3rd party. Trump has a loyal base. Biden does not. His rather poor fundraising ability during the primaries could serve as an indicator of this. Furthermore, populism is gonna be the name of the game for the next little while. This is not solely limited to the US.
Incumbents don't really 'almost never lose.' Sure, Obama, Bush 2, Clinton, and Reagan all won reelection, but Bush 1, Carter, and Ford all lost. That's 4:3 for the past 7 re-election campaigns. Yes, all incumbents are advantaged, but it's nowhere near 'almost never lose.'
Trump has a very loyal base, a large group of people who dislike him, and a large group of people who hate him. He's very unpopular.
With economic problems and deaths, etc., his position is not exactly great.
I don't necessarily think Biden will win, it obviously depends on turnout and what independents do, but it seems pretty 50/50 right now, if not slightly leaning towards Biden.