|Originally posted by SYSTEM-J |
I'm not talking about a lockdown in the sense of what's happening in Italy or Spain. I'm talking about the current state here in the UK, with schools about to close tomorrow. This cannot be sustained for 18 months, which is what the ICL report states is likely to be necessary.
I don't think the report states that it is likely to be 18 months to develop a vaccine, only that it might take that long.
They definitely aren't suggesting closing schools completely for 18 months.
|To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more. Adaptive|
hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use... Given local epidemics are not perfectly synchronised, local policies are also more efficient and can achieve comparable levels of suppression to national policies while being in force for a slightly smaller proportion of the time. However, we estimate that for a national GB policy, social distancing would need to be in force for at least 2/3 of the time ... until a vaccine was available.
So, closing all schools for the rest of the school year, and then the possibility of periodic closures next school year decided at a more local level when/if necessary. Hopefully they won't be! But if they are, people will adapt. Ensure all children have internet access and computers, teach them all remotely, etc.