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Swing States
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| Renegade |
Thought it might be worth examining how the swing-states are going with the election less than 48 hours away. I've gone out on a limb in calling some of these states one way or the other. Most of this data's been taken from electoral-vote.com
Florida: Tied (27 Electoral Votes)
Most recent Zogby poll puts Kerry in front, two others put Bush in front. Bush may have a slight lead here if we average the polls out, but it's well within the margin of error.
Iowa: Tied (7 Electoral Votes)
Five surveys have been taken in Iowa in the past 24 hours and two demonstrate a Bush lead, two demonstrate a Kerry lead and one shows a tie. Good luck picking a winner here.
Michigan: Kerry (17 Electoral Votes)
All polls now show Kerry with a modest lead here, so the Democrats should be confident about winning it.
Minnesota:Tied (10 Electoral Votes)
Two polls to Kerry, two to Bush. Again, too close to call.
New Mexico: Bush (5 Electoral Votes)
Most recent poll shows Kerry with a slight lead, but previous polls by Zogby and Mason-Dixon give Bush a healthy lead. I find it difficult to believe that there's been a 5-10% swing here over the last 24 hours, so I'd say that Bush will still win here.
Nevada: Bush (5 Electoral Votes)
Still close, but Bush seems to have edged in front.
Ohio: Bush (10 Electoral Votes)
All polls now giving Bush the lead (outside of the margin of error) so I think this one's going to the Republicans too.
Pennsylvania: Kerry (21 Electoral Votes)
All polls now giving Kerry the lead, so the Democrats whould be able to win comfortably here.
Wisconsin: Tied (10 Electoral Votes)
Zogby has Kerry up by 9 (and Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon also have him ahead) but other polls taken over the same period have Bush ahead. Kerry might have the edge here at the moment, but it's still too close to call.
New Jersey: Kerry (15 Electoral Votes)
Bush did well to catch up here, but polls are no suggesting that Kerry has a healthy lead again. This should go to the Democrats.
New Hampshire:Tied (4 Electoral Votes)
Kerry's pegged back a Bush lead and this state is again too close to call.
So, if my predictions are correct (this may change depending on polling taken tomorrow) the current scores are:
Bush: 256 Votes
Kerry: 224 Votes
Undecided: 58 Votes
Basically, if Bush takes Florida then he it looks like he has the election. Failing that, if Kerry wins Florida, then Bush will need to win Minnesota (or Wisconsin - but Minnesota would be his best chance) and one of Iowa and New Hampshire. Kerry to win is going to have to win Florida and Wisconsin and then either Minnesota or Iowa and New Hampshire. Still, Florida is once again looking like the decisive state.
Thoughts? |
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| Q5echo |
if Bush take Hawaii then New Hampshire wouldn't matter either way.
from the looks of it, Hawaii is going to give it's four votes to the GOP. |
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| speedracer_mec |
I, as a Republican predict a sizable victory for the challenger JOHN KERRY.
Minnesota will fall into Bush's column.
New Hampshire to Kerry.
Florida might go Bush.
Iowa will fall into Kerry's column.
I do not see OHIO going to Bush nor do I see Wisconsin either.
Large numbers of newly registered brainwashed voters by the media will go and blindly vote against Bush....err I mean for Kerry;)
It was a fun ride folks. Let the record breaking voter turnout begin!
:toocool:
And then Kerry woke up and noticed he was late for another senate meeting |
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| Renegade |
| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
if Bush take Hawaii then New Hampshire wouldn't matter either way.
from the looks of it, Hawaii is going to give it's four votes to the GOP. |
I included Hawaii as a given for the GOP.
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
I, as a Republican predict a sizable victory for the challenger JOHN KERRY. |
We can only hope. :cool:
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
I do not see OHIO going to Bush. |
He's got it I think. Glad to be proven wrong, but the data certainly seems to indicate that Bush has a handy lead there. |
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| speedracer_mec |
I'm holding on to the ZOGBY tomorrow afternoon.
Regardless who it favors. |
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by Renegade
I included Hawaii as a given for the GOP.
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oh, my bad. |
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| DJ_Elyot |
| I read an article somewhere that said that those polls are really inaccurate because of the fact that they generally only go by telephone landlines. A lot of people in the US don't have landline phones... they either can't afford a phone or only carry a cell phone. These people aren't accounted for in the polling, and they'd probably give the advantage to Kerry (considering that they're either low-income or younger urban people... which tend to be democrats instead of republicans). I don't know how true that is, but it's definitely something to think about. |
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| ResonantDrag |
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
I'm holding on to the ZOGBY tomorrow afternoon.
Regardless who it favors. |
i got your zogby right here
MY ZOGBY |
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| Renegade |
| quote: | Originally posted by ResonantDrag
i got your zogby right here
MY ZOGBY |
Hmmm... interesting. When was this recorded? |
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| Dave Piazza |
Here is my prediction
Florida: Kerry(27 Electoral Votes)
Iowa: Bush (7 Electoral Votes)
Michigan: Kerry (17 Electoral Votes)
Minnesota:Bush(10 Electoral Votes)
New Mexico:Bush (5 Electoral Votes)
Nevada:Bush (5 Electoral Votes)
Ohio: Kerry (10 Electoral Votes)
Pennsylvania: Bush (21 Electoral Votes)[/COLOR]
Wisconsin: Bush (10 Electoral Votes)
New Jersey: Kerry (15 Electoral Votes)[/COLOR]
New Hampshire:Kerry(4 Electoral Votes)
Bush: 31 Votes
Kerry: 73 Votes
I predict John F. Kerry will be the next President of United States of America |
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