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Originally posted by Dervish >LINK< Is it just me or is this China-Japan thing getting worse (obviously been there for ages)? It aleast seems to be more visable these days. Not a good sign really... EDIT: I don't think it deserves a full thread.

I believe these geopolitical tensions were always present ... they just didn't have the catalyst to bring them out. This is primarily the reason why the US has adopted such a hard stance against N. Korean nuclear weapons. Not so much that there is a genuine threat against the US, but rather it may destabilize the region and escalate tensions in general. For example, Japan might be inclined to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrant (after all the N. Koreans like lobbing test missiles over Japan). This would serve to piss off China who has historical presedence to be wary of Japan. Then S. Korea might be inclined to develop nuclear weapons, then there's the whole Taiwan issue, etc.

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Retro ...

It is a worry though simple things can set off huge reactions.

EDIT:
[extreme theory]I mean WW1... guy got killed (heir to the Austria- Hungarian throne, in Sarajevo)....starts war.... was a hell of a build upto it. But maybe thats what we are starting to see now?[/extreme theory]

Last edited by Dervish on May-24-2005 at 07:13

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Originally posted by Dervish It is a worry though simple things can set off huge reactions. EDIT: [extreme theory]I mean WW1... guy got killed (heir to the Austria- Hungarian throne, in Sarajevo)....starts war.... was a hell of a build upto it. But maybe thats what we are starting to see now?[/extreme theory]

No chance in hell imo. There were so many short term causes and numerous long term causes to the first world war. It's simply not a comparable set of circumstances imo. Furthermore, the US would not stand by idly in a chinese/japanese war of which I'm sure China is well aware of.

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Originally posted by Yoepus Ok, how the hell do refferals work and how come I have none?

When you sign up you can state the nick of the person who recommended TA to you. Then that person gets a +1 to his referrals.

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Originally posted by occrider No chance in hell imo. There were so many short term causes and numerous long term causes to the first world war. It's simply not a comparable set of circumstances imo. Furthermore, the US would not stand by idly in a chinese/japanese war of which I'm sure China is well aware of.

I'm not so sure...dont forget China's missiles can reach everywhere in the United States (and the US' missile defence doesn't work)

There were dozens of events during the Cold War where America and Russia (or China) could have been sucked into conflict but MAD prevailed.

Of course, the same works both ways as you point out, that China may be reluctant to enter a war that would potentially drag America in (and Japan has more chance of involving America than Taiwan does)

On the same note, would China even want to risk a war with Japan? Japan is the second richest economy in the world - it is a war economy and would be quite the match for China (bar a nuclear deterant)

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Originally posted by trancaholic When you sign up you can state the nick of the person who recommended TA to you. Then that person gets a +1 to his referrals.

Do they get any free trinkets to boot? I have none.

[more extreme conjecture stuff]

I think we are going to see a major shift in power in the next few years (decades). China becoming more and more advanced, more and more powerful.

If the relationship with Japan gets worse ([genralisation] the Japanese can be quite rasict, perhaps even get jealous?[/genralisation]) as the progress in China affects them and their economy (China will become a competitor in the high tech relm).

Perhaps Japan would make efforts to gain advantage with using it's friends, which would be seen as very negative from Chinas point of view.

China will only get prouder and bolder in the future if you ask me. While Japan will fall away (relativly), and Japan won't like that. So baiting China into an extreme position would only serve Japans intrests, that is try to create a "us and them" situation with the rest of the world against China (who won't like it) to get advantages in terms of trade and so on.

[/more extreme conjecture stuff]

Anyway, there is an invasion of China planned for this summer!!

Link

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Originally posted by Dervish [more extreme conjecture stuff] I think we are going to see a major shift in power in the next few years (decades). China becoming more and more advanced, more and more powerful. If the relationship with Japan gets worse ([genralisation] the Japanese can be quite rasict, perhaps even get jealous?[/genralisation]) as the progress in China affects them and their economy (China will become a competitor in the high tech relm). Perhaps Japan would make efforts to gain advantage with using it's friends, which would be seen as very negative from Chinas point of view. China will only get prouder and bolder in the future if you ask me. While Japan will fall away (relativly), and Japan won't like that. So baiting China into an extreme position would only serve Japans intrests, that is try to create a "us and them" situation with the rest of the world against China (who won't like it) to get advantages in terms of trade and so on. [/more extreme conjecture stuff]

Pure conjecture, but I think at some point in the very near future (next 2-5 years), China will have some sort of a major revolution. I don't think that their ever increasingly pro-western, capitalist approach to business can peacefully coexist with a communist government.

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Originally posted by Shakka Do they get any free trinkets to boot? I have none.

Same with me - so I don't know. Actually, I would never try to persuade any of my RL friends to join TA.

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Originally posted by trancaholic Same with me - so I don't know. Actually, I would never try to persuade any of my RL friends to join TA.

why?