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TranceAddict Forums > Main Forums > Chill Out Room > Corona Virus Fears in your area
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OrangestO
–30–



Registered: Feb 2010
Location: London

quote:
Originally posted by Sushipunk
Of course our conservative govt is trying to play it down, because they're idiots. World-wide pandemic, but they still said "Yeah, yeah, go ahead and have big group gatherings etc. but just for this weekend, no more after Monday"

And so everyone is losing their shit, panic buying even more.


Same thing here.

There are all sorts of theories on why that is, one of which is herd immunity. There's another claiming the government wants the elderly population wiped because it's a strain on what was an already overwhelmed healthcare system battered by austerity.

On that note, our friend's boyfriend is a cop and he said they are doing training this week to enforce some sort of curfew by the weekend. Still can't believe the clubs are open.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 10:19 
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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

I think the real reason goes back to what I said earlier. It's socially and economically damaging to lock a country down, so it can only be done for so long. Officially we have about 1,300 cases. The government estimates the real number is more like 10,000. In a country of 66 million people, that's still only 0.015% of the population, so the chances of running into someone with the virus are still low at this stage.

The calculation is obviously whether it's worth blowing your load on a nationwide shutdown this early in an outbreak. Again, without having seen any modelling, I don't know the answer. But my gut feeling is it's too early right now.

Also, I'd hope the idea of a conservative government deliberately wiping out elderly voters is self-evidently nonsensical.


___________________
Mixes:
> Beating The Lockdown Blues [Peak Time]
> A Different World [Downtempo Beats]
> A Secondhand Sunrise [Lush Breakbeat House]
> Lost In You [Trance Classics]
> I Dreamed Of Summer [Deep & Melodic House]

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:03  England
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Zoso
Smoke Weed Every Day



Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I think the real reason goes back to what I said earlier. It's socially and economically damaging to lock a country down, so it can only be done for so long. Officially we have about 1,300 cases. The government estimates the real number is more like 10,000. In a country of 66 million people, that's still only 0.015% of the population, so the chances of running into someone with the virus are still low at this stage.

The calculation is obviously whether it's worth blowing your load on a nationwide shutdown this early in an outbreak. Again, without having seen any modelling, I don't know the answer. But my gut feeling is it's too early right now.

Also, I'd hope the idea of a conservative government deliberately wiping out elderly voters is self-evidently nonsensical.


I hope I am correct in stating this, and it may be taken by some as naive or even argumentative: but the goal at this point by most governments has shifted from containment to "flattening the curve". I am sure you've seen the graphs, Jack, where you have the curve, representing the peak infection, laid against the backdrop of hospital/healthcare capacity. Even if we have the same total number of infected, the goal is to flatten out the curve so that the peak doesn't (or just barely) go over that magic number in each country.

Right now, social distancing is really the ONLY thing we know to be effective, so locking down = social distancing (if done properly). Yes, the economy is going to be kicked in the balls. But if some of the stats I've seen hold true, we need to think LONG term on this. That is, dead people cannot consume your product/service in the future, so better to take a hit to sales up front/now, temporarily, than later, permanently.

I am not stating that this is the ONLY or BEST way to respond. I am just stating "the reasons above MAY be why" you're seeing what you're seeing. Thoughts?

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:14  United States
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Zoso
Smoke Weed Every Day



Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States

Bing/MS has a real-time map up, similar to the Johns Hopkins map. Note that hackers are already exploiting the Johns Hopkins map by standing up malware sites that use/call the actual map, but also inject Javascript malware.

Bing/MS map link: https://www.bing.com/covid

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:22  United States
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Lews
Platipus And Prog Addict



Registered: Feb 2007
Location: Hugging Whales And Saving Trees

quote:
Originally posted by OrangestO
We will push for a test at our next midwife appointment. But from what I hear they are being super stingy about it.


Good luck with that. There isn't enough capacity to even test NHS workers.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:27 
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Zoso
Smoke Weed Every Day



Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States

This is JUST an example of some of the unknowns we are up against with this particular virus. This is a post from someone in VETERINARY medicine, I stress. I am NOT saying this applies to this novel coronavirus circulating in humans. I simply point it how to show how complex this shit can be. Post as follows, from the Ars forums:

In my field, (Veterinary medicine) we have some experience with reinfections with coronaviruses, some of which are associated with rapid mutation, and some of these can lead to quite catastrophic complications.

Coronaviruses are responsible for a reasonable number of acute gastrointestinal upsets in both dogs and cats. The coronavirus that affects dogs was, for a long time, considered pretty benign. In recent times, however, we are seeing a more aggressive presentation with systemic spread as well as GI signs. We tend to see canine enteric coronavirus in local epidemics, and my (subjective) impression is that the dogs are only infected once, we usually see it in younger dogs.

Canine Enteric Coronaviruses: Emerging Viral Pathogens with Distinct Recombinant Spike Proteins

Canine enteric coronavirus is an alpha-coronavirus. There is also a canine respiratory coronavirus which is from the beta-coronavirus group, the same group as SARS-CoV-2. The canine respiratory coronavirus is generally associated with mild clinical signs in most dogs, and is most commonly associated with close contact situations such as housing in boarding kennels.

The canine coronaviruses are probably a good model of what we hope SARS-CoV-2 will be like. The feline coronavirus, though, is decidedly more creepy.

Cats have an enteric coronavirus (FECV) that can establish a persistent gastrointestinal infection, and is associated with very mild GI signs. FECV is an alpha-coronavirus, like the canine enteric virus. The cats do not establish immunity to FECV, and in multi-cat environments (catteries, multi-cat households, shelters) there tends to be persistent transmission from cat to cat within the group. While this is pretty benign, with each round of infection there is a chance that the FECV will mutate to a much more unpleasant virus: Feline Infectious Peritonitis.

I'm grossly simplifying the following

When the FECV mutates to FIP, it sets up a persistent infection within macrophages. The cat's immune system does respond to the FIP virus, but the virus is protected from antibody binding by being within the macrophages. The cat's immune system just churns out antibodies, and this can lead to accumulation of large volumes of very high protein fluid in body spaces (abdominal cavity, chest cavity, even the central nervous system). In some cats, instead of an antibody mediated response resulting in high protein fluid accumulation, they have a runaway cell-mediated response, resulting in granuloma formation in affected organs. We call this "dry form FIP".

We currently consider FIP, in either wet or dry form, to be almost invariably terminal in cats. There is some evidence that newer viral protease inhibitors and a nucleoside analog can be beneficial, these are years away from regular use and availability.

The thing that haunts my dreams is the thought that the SARS-CoV-2 could mutate in a manner that leads to long term complications similar to FIP. I keep telling myself that SARS-CoV-2 is an alpha, not a beta, but there is a part of my mind that is just waiting for a nasty rash of horrible, long term autoimmune inflammatory disease in humans that have 'recovered' from SARS-CoV-2.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:28  United States
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SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

quote:
Originally posted by Zoso
I hope I am correct in stating this, and it may be taken by some as naive or even argumentative: but the goal at this point by most governments has shifted from containment to "flattening the curve". I am sure you've seen the graphs, Jack, where you have the curve, representing the peak infection, laid against the backdrop of hospital/healthcare capacity. Even if we have the same total number of infected, the goal is to flatten out the curve so that the peak doesn't (or just barely) go over that magic number in each country.

Right now, social distancing is really the ONLY thing we know to be effective, so locking down = social distancing (if done properly). Yes, the economy is going to be kicked in the balls. But if some of the stats I've seen hold true, we need to think LONG term on this. That is, dead people cannot consume your product/service in the future, so better to take a hit to sales up front/now, temporarily, than later, permanently.

I am not stating that this is the ONLY or BEST way to respond. I am just stating "the reasons above MAY be why" you're seeing what you're seeing. Thoughts?


Yes, all of that is obvious. But the question is when you choose to hit the curve. Hit it too early and you could burn out your control measures, only to have the outbreak increase exponentially once you reopen everything.

What happened in Italy was too little until things reached crisis point, followed by a drastic lockdown. Other countries have gone straight to lockdown with hardly any cases. What's happening here is a slower escalation of measures over a long-ish window of time.

One thing I know our government is trying to avoid is having the outbreak flare up again next winter. Because we're at least 18 months from a vaccine and scientists already expect this virus to become a recurring seasonal disease, like flu. Obviously we can't keep everything closed for the entirety of 2020.


___________________
Mixes:
> Beating The Lockdown Blues [Peak Time]
> A Different World [Downtempo Beats]
> A Secondhand Sunrise [Lush Breakbeat House]
> Lost In You [Trance Classics]
> I Dreamed Of Summer [Deep & Melodic House]

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:42  England
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OrangestO
–30–



Registered: Feb 2010
Location: London

quote:
Originally posted by Zoso
I hope I am correct in stating this, and it may be taken by some as naive or even argumentative: but the goal at this point by most governments has shifted from containment to "flattening the curve". I am sure you've seen the graphs, Jack, where you have the curve, representing the peak infection, laid against the backdrop of hospital/healthcare capacity. Even if we have the same total number of infected, the goal is to flatten out the curve so that the peak doesn't (or just barely) go over that magic number in each country.

Right now, social distancing is really the ONLY thing we know to be effective, so locking down = social distancing (if done properly). Yes, the economy is going to be kicked in the balls. But if some of the stats I've seen hold true, we need to think LONG term on this. That is, dead people cannot consume your product/service in the future, so better to take a hit to sales up front/now, temporarily, than later, permanently.

I am not stating that this is the ONLY or BEST way to respond. I am just stating "the reasons above MAY be why" you're seeing what you're seeing. Thoughts?


I'm with you.

Isn't China a model? Some say what they've done is unethical, but it has worked to flatten the curve.

The statistics tell the truth. The number of cases is rising substantially - and fast. The government's inaction is resulting in people taking things into their own hands, and rightly so. I'm witnessing firsthand how it's unfolding at my partner's school. Parents are pissed off, some kids have fallen ill, staff are starting to self-isolate, yet the school remains open. One family has even flown to Israel to get tested and receive treatment. Our airports are still open to everyone except Americans who aren't on essential business.

So what's the boiling point?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...nch-ski-resorts

quote:
“The airlines are very quick to ask for help from the government but this is a massive flow of people which will costs the industry millions. If the government does not step in travel companies will start to fail because the cost of repatriation will be enormous,” she said.

She explained that travel companies pay bonds to cover emergencies but if travel companies go to the wall the money will have to come out of government coffers. If they are going to bail out travellers at the end of this, would it not be better to step in earlier in the crisis and in doing so save businesses and jobs as well as holidaymakers, she argued.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:46 
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Lews
Platipus And Prog Addict



Registered: Feb 2007
Location: Hugging Whales And Saving Trees

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Obviously we can't keep everything closed for the entirety of 2020.


Why not?


By the way, numbers I've seen today estimate the UK currently has 100,000 cases.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:48 
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Zoso
Smoke Weed Every Day



Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States

We're so far behind on testing here in the US that I fear we'll be the next Italy. Private/for profit healthcare works when you just need to schedule a routine appt with your provider days/weeks/months in advance. It does fuck all during a pandemic/panic. Part of me wants to believe this MIGHT get us talking seriously, as a society, about having at least SOME level of universal healthcare...but this is also the same nation that didn't lift a finger after the Sandyhook Elementary disaster to reform our gun laws. Why would we change our stubborn-ass minds on healthcare? As bad as it sounds, the only thing that MIGHT do it is enough infected/dead rich, old, white, scared Republicans.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:48  United States
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OrangestO
–30–



Registered: Feb 2010
Location: London

quote:
Originally posted by Lews
Good luck with that. There isn't enough capacity to even test NHS workers.


I know

Has anyone from the States on here been tested yet?

How is its free testing program working?

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:48 
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Zoso
Smoke Weed Every Day



Registered: Mar 2006
Location: Dirty South, United States

quote:
Originally posted by OrangestO
I know

Has anyone from the States on here been tested yet?

How is its free testing program working?


Fortunately, I don't know anyone who has been tested. But from everything I am reading, it's a total cluster fuck. The ONLY reason we even learned of the community spread in Washington state was a doctor, suspicious of a patient's symptoms, violated protocol and had a sample tested anyway. If that doesn't shine the light on a broken ass system, I don't know what will.

Old Post Mar-16-2020 11:52  United States
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