Become a part of the TranceAddict community!Frequently Asked Questions - Please read this if you haven'tSearch the forums
TranceAddict Forums > Main Forums > Chill Out Room > Corona Virus Fears in your area
Pages (55): « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 [55]   Last Thread   Next Thread
Author
Thread    Post A Reply
Arbiter
Naked Power Organ



Registered: May 2002
Location:

Meanwhile, here in Washington, D.C., we're beginning to reopen tomorrow, nearly ten days after the last of the 50 U.S. states. That's overdue, to say the least. Despite being one of the hardest hit areas in the United States outside of New York City, our hospitals have never been remotely threatened with being overwhelmed, which was after all the danger the lockdown was originally supposed to prevent. The district's hospitals hit their peak of COVID-19 patients a month ago, on April 28, with COVID patients taking up less than one-eighth of our overall healthcare capacity. If anything, the bigger threat to the hospitals is simply going out of business, since their profitable patients have almost entirely disappeared. And considering the ongoing hysteria who knows when they'll return.

Of course, "beginning" to reopen does not mean many significant changes, anyway, and we have not even identified specific criteria for moving to the next "phase" of reopening after this one. Probably they will be as nonsensical as the criteria for starting to reopen in the first place. I fully expect our mayor to at some point join governors of other jurisdictions in deciding that we cannot fully reopen until a vaccine or cure is developed, which is to say quite possibly never.

That won't last, of course. More people are realizing that they cannot live in perpetual fear every day, and they are voting with their feet. That may result in more infections, but infectious diseases have been commonplace throughout human history. COVID-19 is worse than most, at least for the elderly, but it is not worth reordering our society around, potentially permanently. Dying, after all, is not the only way to avoid actually living.

The difference between merely being alive and actually living is also why the likely shift towards isolating vulnerable populations such as nursing home residents is misguided. It's true that COVID-19 poses a great risk to such persons, but the alternative is even worse. Even in normal times, the median nursing home patient only lives about 5 months between admission and death; the average is higher but still only about 13 months. Simply put, they can't wait for a vaccine because they overwhelmingly won't live to see one, even on the most optimistic development timelines. Confining these people to their homes, or in some cases even their rooms, and forbidding them visitors to "save" their lives is utterly nonsensical. They are going to die anyway. Our priority should be helping them make the most of what limited time they have left, not prolonging their bare existence at the cost of making it as miserable as possible. No rational person would accept solitary confinement for the rest of their lives to extend their life spans by a few months. Yet that is essentially the fate we seem likely to righteously condemn many of our elderly population to.

On a lighter note, I am quite enjoying the rampant hypocrisy of the hysteria-promoters. From reporters shaming people for not wearing masks while their own camera crew stand around maskless in crowded areas to Neil Ferguson breaking the lockdown he called for to meet with his married mistress, hardly a day goes by without a dozen or so self-righteous blowhards failing to take their own medicine. It's a truly absurd time. I mean, granted, it was even before the coronavirus (see, e.g., Trump, Donald J.), but the virus has taken the absurdity to even greater heights. I look forward to the inevitable post-pandemic hygienic security theater. As a starting point, I propose that all persons be required to submit to having their temperature taken rectally before being admitted to any restaurant or bar.

Old Post May-29-2020 01:24 
Click Here to See the Profile for Arbiter Click here to Send Arbiter a Private Message Add Arbiter to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

What's your proposal for an alternative? I've heard this kind of criticism of the lockdown a lot in recent weeks, but I'm unsure of what the alternative is at present. If we go completely back to normal without herd immunity, there will be a massive exponential outbreak that will overwhelm the healthcare system of just about any country in the world.

As far as I can see, the main benefit of a lockdown should be buying the time to put a proper testing system in place and driving the numbers down to the level where we can effectively contact trace. But certainly in the UK I have little confidence that our test-and-trace system is going to be fit for purpose or that community infection levels are low enough to keep track of. So that logic would lend credence to the idea we're exiting lockdown too early rather than too late.


___________________
Mixes:
> Beating The Lockdown Blues [Peak Time]
> A Different World [Downtempo Beats]
> A Secondhand Sunrise [Lush Breakbeat House]
> Lost In You [Trance Classics]
> I Dreamed Of Summer [Deep & Melodic House]

Last edited by SYSTEM-J on May-29-2020 at 12:51

Old Post May-29-2020 11:02  England
Click Here to See the Profile for SYSTEM-J Click here to Send SYSTEM-J a Private Message Visit SYSTEM-J's homepage! Add SYSTEM-J to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
Lews
Platipus And Prog Addict



Registered: Feb 2007
Location: Hugging Whales And Saving Trees

Meh. Governments can say or do whatever they want about 'lockdowns,' but they can't force people to start going out again. People will only 'vote with their feet' when they feel it is safe to do so. Governments should focus resources to areas that will reduce the likelihood of future large outbreaks, i.e. building up testing and tracing systems.

Now, if the US and UK had locked down earlier, perhaps we could have prevented this from getting out of control in the first place, allowing us to reopen now like Austria and Denmark have. But, we didn't. Late to close, late to open. Can't wait for the inquiries to begin.

Old Post May-29-2020 12:35 
Click Here to See the Profile for Lews Click here to Send Lews a Private Message Add Lews to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
Boomer187
Spicy Hotdog



Registered: Aug 2001
Location: USA

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
What's your proposal for an alternative? I've heard this kind of criticism of the lockdown a lot in recent weeks, but I'm unsure of what the alternative is at present. If we go completely back to normal without herd immunity, there will be a massive exponential outbreak that will overwhelm the healthcare system of just about any country in the world.



I am interested to see if herd immunity even applies. We assume if you have had it you would be less likely to get it again...or maybe it will reduce the severity. but the thing hasn't been around long enough to show that is the case.

And I am thinking the next year or 2 will be an exercise in finding out how we can socially interact the safest way, while being able to find and stop little outbreaks. It is crazy how long you can show no symptoms and be contagious to others. And the seemingly random severity among people also makes you not want to get this at all.

I also think its wild to talk about public health in terms of available space in hospitals instead of avoiding infection. I guess because we never have before and it sounds weird. Would we increase the legal alcohol limit for driving because we have enough hospital/morgue space...


___________________
.

Old Post May-29-2020 15:41  United States
Click Here to See the Profile for Boomer187 Click here to Send Boomer187 a Private Message Visit Boomer187's homepage! Add Boomer187 to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
JEO
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Jan 2010
Location: ATH

quote:
Originally posted by Boomer187
I am interested to see if herd immunity even applies.


I really don't believe it does. As I understand it, relying on a supposed herd immunity with RNA viruses, when it's not herd immunity via vaccine, truly is gambling with lives, and potentially not just those of the old and/or weak. The more people get it, and thus the more there is of the virus, the higher are the chances of it mutating into something more dangerous too.

In the long run, yes, mostly only those viruses that didn't completely eradicate their hosts are left, which I guess should be almost obvious. That doesn't mean that there can't be particularly bad variations of any given RNA virus in the short term, which can still do a lot of damage before their deadliness turns against them.

I suspect we've had a bit of luck in that this particular virus has been reportedly very slow at mutating.

Last edited by JEO on May-29-2020 at 16:37

Old Post May-29-2020 16:27  Finland
Click Here to See the Profile for JEO Click here to Send JEO a Private Message Add JEO to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
Arbiter
Naked Power Organ



Registered: May 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
What's your proposal for an alternative? I've heard this kind of criticism of the lockdown a lot in recent weeks, but I'm unsure of what the alternative is at present. If we go completely back to normal without herd immunity, there will be a massive exponential outbreak that will overwhelm the healthcare system of just about any country in the world.

As far as I can see, the main benefit of a lockdown should be buying the time to put a proper testing system in place and driving the numbers down to the level where we can effectively contact trace. But certainly in the UK I have little confidence that our test-and-trace system is going to be fit for purpose or that community infection levels are low enough to keep track of. So that logic would lend credence to the idea we're exiting lockdown too early rather than too late.


What's the alternative is certainly a fair question, but also a somewhat odd one. After all, such sweeping lockdowns were not part of the playbook in dealing with most previous pandemics, and they have not been universally implemented even in this one, as can be seen in countries as diverse as Japan, Laos, Sweden, and Belarus. None of those countries experienced exponential growth in infections that overwhelmed hospitals, so a lockdown was certainly not necessary to avoid that outcome. Instead, to varying degrees they followed what was the WHO's position on how to deal with similar pandemic respiratory illnesses as recently as last year (here). Namely, they focused on hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, and voluntary isolation of sick individuals. In some cases they also employed face mask usage and limitations on mass gatherings, particularly in areas with poor ventilation.

Under the WHO's guidelines, home isolation of even exposed individuals was "not recommended in any circumstances" even during "extraordinary" pandemics. This recommendation was based both on the lack of quality evidence supporting the practice, and because "there is no obvious rationale for this measure, and there would be considerable difficulties in implementing it." Stay-at-home orders for non-exposed individuals were apparently not even considered, likely because the evidence was even weaker and the practice considered too extreme. Such quaint times!

Simply put, lockdowns similar to those imposed in the United States and most of Europe were not previously recommended or even seriously considered, had little to no scientific support, and had only meager precedent in previous pandemic responses. So it seems to me that the question we should really be asking is not what the alternatives are, but instead why lockdowns were even considered to be among the alternatives to begin with.

Incidentally, contact tracing was also "not recommended in any circumstances" by the WHO due to poor evidence of efficacy. Unlike the lockdowns the costs of contact tracing are quite modest. So as long as we're not talking building some kind of panopticon-like surveillance state, I think it's probably worth trying despite the weak evidence of efficacy. But we shouldn't have high expectations for it, and I definitely don't think the hopes of constructing an effective contact tracing regime can justify a protracted lockdown. Even proponents of contact tracing admit that for it to be effective in controlling the spread of the disease, (1) the rate of positive tests must be very low; (2) the percentage of contacts identified must be very high; and (3) the contacts must be identified, tested, and isolated very quickly, generally in less than two days (see here for a very longform version). That is, to be effective, you need to isolate 70-90% of an infected person's contacts--including even brief contacts like random people they crossed paths with in a grocery store--within a day or so. That seems quite unrealistic to me, especially in places like the United States, where half the population is likely to be belligerently uncooperative.

Old Post May-30-2020 04:06 
Click Here to See the Profile for Arbiter Click here to Send Arbiter a Private Message Add Arbiter to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
planetaryplayer
surprime trainandict



Registered: Dec 2011
Location: Pine Tree Valley

bum_sword_queer

Old Post May-30-2020 09:29  Norfolk Island
Click Here to See the Profile for planetaryplayer Click here to Send planetaryplayer a Private Message Add planetaryplayer to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
Lews
Platipus And Prog Addict



Registered: Feb 2007
Location: Hugging Whales And Saving Trees

Arbiter, completely random question here, but have you read Machiavelli's Discourses on Livy?

Old Post May-30-2020 10:45 
Click Here to See the Profile for Lews Click here to Send Lews a Private Message Add Lews to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

quote:
Originally posted by Arbiter
After all, such sweeping lockdowns were not part of the playbook in dealing with most previous pandemics, and they have not been universally implemented even in this one, as can be seen in countries as diverse as Japan, Laos, Sweden, and Belarus. None of those countries experienced exponential growth in infections that overwhelmed hospitals, so a lockdown was certainly not necessary to avoid that outcome. Instead, to varying degrees they followed what was the WHO's position on how to deal with similar pandemic respiratory illnesses as recently as last year (here). Namely, they focused on hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, and voluntary isolation of sick individuals. In some cases they also employed face mask usage and limitations on mass gatherings, particularly in areas with poor ventilation.


Two obvious points occur here:

1. I can only speak with experience of what's happened in my own country, but we certainly tried implementing all of those measures initially, and the number of infections still exploded. So obviously there are additional factors to explain why those measures seem sufficient in certain countries but not in others. Saying "It worked in Sweden" doesn't strike me as sufficient.

2. Regardless of the above, we're living in countries where an exponential outbreak did occur, so the horse has very much bolted on that front. Your contention seems to be that the US, or at least your state, has taken too long to exit lockdown ("That's overdue, to say the least"). Therefore I don't think it's unreasonable to expect you to have an alternative set of measures to replace lockdown in preventing a second peak of cases. Unless, of course, your stance is basically "Let the disease kill who it's going to kill", in which case I don't know why you're bothering quoting the WHO.


___________________
Mixes:
> Beating The Lockdown Blues [Peak Time]
> A Different World [Downtempo Beats]
> A Secondhand Sunrise [Lush Breakbeat House]
> Lost In You [Trance Classics]
> I Dreamed Of Summer [Deep & Melodic House]

Old Post May-30-2020 10:46  England
Click Here to See the Profile for SYSTEM-J Click here to Send SYSTEM-J a Private Message Visit SYSTEM-J's homepage! Add SYSTEM-J to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
Silky Johnson
Supreme tranceaddict



Registered: Nov 2003
Location:

Also duh, the main factor is that people are stupid assholes.

Old Post Yesterday 08:48 
Click Here to See the Profile for Silky Johnson Click here to Send Silky Johnson a Private Message Add Silky Johnson to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
Arbiter
Naked Power Organ



Registered: May 2002
Location:

quote:
Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Two obvious points occur here:

1. I can only speak with experience of what's happened in my own country, but we certainly tried implementing all of those measures initially, and the number of infections still exploded. So obviously there are additional factors to explain why those measures seem sufficient in certain countries but not in others. Saying "It worked in Sweden" doesn't strike me as sufficient.

2. Regardless of the above, we're living in countries where an exponential outbreak did occur, so the horse has very much bolted on that front. Your contention seems to be that the US, or at least your state, has taken too long to exit lockdown ("That's overdue, to say the least"). Therefore I don't think it's unreasonable to expect you to have an alternative set of measures to replace lockdown in preventing a second peak of cases. Unless, of course, your stance is basically "Let the disease kill who it's going to kill", in which case I don't know why you're bothering quoting the WHO.


I don't think we gave the traditional tools of disease mitigation enough time before locking down to conclude they weren't working. In many places the transmission rate was dropping significantly even before the lockdowns, probably because people had already began behaving much more carefully. Norway's public health institute, for example, recently concluded that it probably could have controlled the disease without a lockdown based on that evidence (source).

It could be that certain densely-populated regions like New York City or London required even stronger interventions. But I tend to think the explosive growth in infections that they saw was mostly a result of implementing even basic precautions too late. That would explain why Tokyo, which never locked down but implemented more modest measures much earlier thanks to the Diamond Princess, never saw growth on the same scale.

Of course you are correct that the virus has now established itself in the US and UK to a degree where we cannot go back and try to replicate Japan's apparent success with lighter measures implemented earlier. I don't know if we can fully prevent a second wave of cases upon reopening. It's a good sign that places which reopened early, such as the state of Georgia, have generally not yet seen the predicted acceleration of infections over a month later. But life there is still hardly "normal," and regional differences may make other places more vulnerable to another spike in infections. Even if a second wave will occur, however, a longer lockdown will only delay it, not prevent it. The lack of a straightforward exit strategy from lockdowns is part of the problem with them, not a reason to prolong them.

Old Post Yesterday 21:13 
Click Here to See the Profile for Arbiter Click here to Send Arbiter a Private Message Add Arbiter to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message
SYSTEM-J
IDKFA.



Registered: Sep 2003
Location: Leeds

I very much hope you are right, because that would mean the very gradual relaxation of lockdown we're currently going through will not result in another explosive growth of cases. There's an awful lot of hand-wringing in the media right now from various public health officials who are claiming we're going too quickly with this.


___________________
Mixes:
> Beating The Lockdown Blues [Peak Time]
> A Different World [Downtempo Beats]
> A Secondhand Sunrise [Lush Breakbeat House]
> Lost In You [Trance Classics]
> I Dreamed Of Summer [Deep & Melodic House]

Old Post Yesterday 21:26  England
Click Here to See the Profile for SYSTEM-J Click here to Send SYSTEM-J a Private Message Visit SYSTEM-J's homepage! Add SYSTEM-J to your buddy list Report this Post Reply w/Quote Edit/Delete Message

TranceAddict Forums > Main Forums > Chill Out Room > Corona Virus Fears in your area
Post New Thread    Post A Reply

Pages (55): « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 [55]  
Last Thread   Next Thread
Show Printable Version | Subscribe to this Thread

Forum Jump:

All times are GMT. The time now is 07:12.

Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
[IMG] code is ON
 
Search this Thread:

 
Contact Us - return to tranceaddict

Powered by: Trance Music & vBulletin Forums
Copyright ©2000-2020

Privacy Statement / DMCA